Excess Returns

Excess Returns

Veteran investors Jim Grant, Liz Ann Sonders, and Brent Donnelly warn that markets are underestimating the inflationary impact of geopolitical conflict, the global nature of energy prices despite US export status, and the importance of distinguishing between structural trends and mean-reverting policy shocks in the current volatile regime.

Excess Returns

David Rosenberg argues the current market represents the 'sixth mega bubble' of the last century, with the CAPE ratio at 40 and a zero equity risk premium, meaning investors are pricing stocks as riskless assets and should expect zero to negative returns over the next decade.

Excess Returns

Macro trader Brent Donnelly explains why continuous policy shocks and geopolitical risks haven't broken the market, arguing that the U.S. economy's structural resilience and mean-reverting policy dynamics create a 'wall of worry' climb rather than a collapse, with specific strategies for trading regime changes.

Excess Returns

Liz Ann Sonders reveals that while major indexes appear resilient, the market is experiencing a 'violent rotation' masking severe underlying damage, with NASDAQ constituents averaging 33% drawdowns (deep bear market territory) despite the index showing only a 13% correction, as geopolitical instability and a new class of 'short attention span' retail traders fundamentally alter market mechanics.

Excess Returns

Jim Grant argues that war is inherently inflationary due to resource destruction and money printing, while the Federal Reserve's 2% target institutionalizes permanent currency debasement—a combination that threatens sustained inflation amid current geopolitical tensions.

Excess Returns

Portfolio manager Jim Paulson's 'Walmart indicator' has surged to 2008 crisis levels, signaling stress among lower-income consumers and potential private credit tightening, while volatility strategist Brent Kochuba notes the oil-VIX correlation driving recent market fear has begun to decouple as geopolitical uncertainty evolves.

Excess Returns

Despite extreme geopolitical volatility and erratic social media headlines, equity markets have shown unusual resilience as automated volatility-selling flows suppress VIX spikes, while options positioning has become overwhelmingly bearish, creating a potential opportunity in underpriced call options ahead of earnings.

Excess Returns

Investors conflate AI trend exposure with investment conviction, but analyzing the four-layer stack reveals that revenue durability depends on sustainable customer spend flowing down from applications to infrastructure, not just technological importance.

Excess Returns

Economist Jim Paulsen analyzes the 'Walmart Indicator' hitting 2008 crisis levels as a signal of stress among lower-income consumers, but argues today's healthy private balance sheets make a systemic collapse unlikely despite slowing growth and temporary oil-driven inflation risks.

Excess Returns

Tony Wang, manager of T. Rowe Price's $12 billion tech fund, explains his strategy of investing in 'inevitabilities' like AI agents replacing labor, arguing that despite massive demand and earnings growth, the market is underappreciating the shift due to valuation skepticism and treating unprecedented growth as cyclical.

Excess Returns

Michael Mauboussin presents data showing OpenAI's projected 108% CAGR has no precedent in 75 years of market history, while Harris Kupperman explains why extending investment time horizons to 2-3 years creates a sustainable edge over short-term focused markets.

Excess Returns

Technical analyst Katie Stockton identifies a new monthly MACD sell signal on the S&P 500 suggesting a prolonged choppy phase ahead, while noting crude oil's February MACD buy signal anticipated the current breakout to $109, indicating a cyclical shift to sustained higher prices rather than a temporary spike.