Will Gold's Rally Hold Or Crash Next? Trader Reveals New Targets | Gary Wagner
TL;DR
Technical analyst Gary Wagner applies Elliott Wave theory to forecast gold reaching new all-time highs above $5,600 within 3-6 months after completing its ABC correction at $4,100, while noting the current unusual inverse correlation where gold rises alongside stocks despite falling crude oil prices.
🔄 Anomalous Market Correlations 3 insights
Gold decouples from traditional oil relationship
Gold is currently acting as a risk-on asset, rising alongside stocks and falling when oil spikes, which inverts the typical pattern where high crude prices drive inflation and boost gold.
Dollar weakness supports metal prices
The dollar index declined approximately 3% from over 100 to 96-97 recently, providing bullish tailwinds for gold that override the typical inverse reaction to falling oil.
Geopolitical uncertainty driving divergence
Wagner attributes the anomalous behavior to uncertainty premiums; if Middle East tensions fully de-escalate and shipping routes stabilize, traditional correlations between crude and gold may normalize.
📈 Gold Technical Structure 3 insights
ABC correction completed at $4,100
The March decline from the $5,600 all-time high represented a classic Elliott Wave ABC correction that concluded near the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the August-January rally.
Wave structure targets $5,600+ by summer
Gold has entered a new motive phase with Wave 1 currently forming, setting up Wave 3 to push above $5,200 and Wave 5 to exceed the $5,600 all-time high within 3-6 months.
Short-term volatility remains likely
While the long-term trend points higher, expect corrective Waves 2 and 4 with potential short-term topping near current levels before the next leg up completes.
🥈 Silver Outperformance 2 insights
Silver posted 165% rally to $120
Between October and January, silver surged from $45 to over $120, gaining $76 and outperforming gold significantly before undergoing its own ABC correction to $63.
Both metals targeting new 2024 highs
Silver is now in its primary first wave alongside gold, with Wagner expecting both metals to achieve new all-time highs this year despite recent sharp volatility.
🛢️ Crude Oil Trajectory 2 insights
Oil completing extended correction
WTI crude has fallen from $119 to around $83 while completing an extended ABC correction pattern with an elongated B-wave, with technical indicators suggesting a bottom is forming near current levels.
Temporary decoupling from metals
Until crude establishes a new rally phase from the expected bottom, precious metals may continue trading independently of oil's typical inflationary signals.
Bottom Line
Treat the $4,100 level as a confirmed structural bottom to position for gold reaching new all-time highs above $5,600 within 3-6 months, while preparing for continued short-term volatility and unusual correlations with oil.
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