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Samuel Charap argues that a Ukraine ceasefire alone won't reduce the risk of NATO-Russia war and may create a more volatile environment prone to accidental escalation through broken agreements, hybrid warfare, and miscalculation on an expanded NATO border.
Rose Hadshar of Forethought explains how advanced AI could enable unprecedented power concentration not through dramatic coups, but via economic dominance and epistemic manipulation, allowing small groups to control millions of loyal AI workers while the general public loses political leverage.
While advanced AI could theoretically undermine nuclear deterrence by tracking hidden arsenals or disabling command systems, the brutal physics of undersea warfare and inevitable move-countermove dynamics make the complete erosion of secure second-strike capabilities unlikely, preserving the 'balance of nerves' that limits great power coercion.
Advanced AI could compress centuries of progress into years, forcing humanity to make existential decisions faster than ever; developing targeted AI decision-making tools now could help society navigate this critical period by improving collective intelligence before dangerous capabilities emerge.
Robert Long argues that while factory farming offers a cautionary tale about exploiting non-human minds, AI welfare requires distinct ethical frameworks because we design AI desires rather than discovering them, creating unique tensions between ensuring safety through alignment and granting AI systems autonomy to flourish independently.
MIRI researcher Max Harms argues that developing artificial superintelligence poses an existential risk because intelligence and goals are orthogonal—we cannot guarantee alignment, and misalignment could trigger human extinction without the possibility of iteration or recovery.
AI researcher Ajeya Cotra explains why predictions about artificial general intelligence range from modest economic growth to "10,000 years of technological progress" by 2050, largely due to disagreements over whether AI will automate physical infrastructure as quickly as cognitive work, and whether historical steady growth or long-term acceleration is the better guide to the future.
Evolutionary psychiatrist Randy Nesse argues that mental health symptoms like anxiety and depression evolved as useful defensive responses, not diseases, and psychiatry must understand these evolutionary functions—why natural selection preserved capacities for distress—rather than merely categorizing symptom clusters to effectively treat mental illness.
Even perfectly aligned AI that faithfully follows human instructions could lead to gradual human disempowerment through economic, political, and cultural mechanisms, as competitive pressures and structural incentives progressively marginalize human participation in civilization.
Historian Christopher Brown argues that the abolition of slavery was a historically contingent 'fluke' rather than inevitable moral progress, demonstrating that deeply entrenched economic interests and social norms do not automatically yield to ethical enlightenment, even when the moral arguments are compelling and widely known.
Mirror life—artificial organisms with reversed molecular chirality—poses potentially existential risks because Earth's immune systems cannot recognize these 'left-handed' pathogens, yet the technology to create them may cost only $500 million and be achievable within years.
Cancer is not merely a mechanical failure but an inevitable evolutionary phenomenon where individual cells defect from multicellular cooperation, operating on timescales orders of magnitude faster than species evolution and creating recursive layers of cooperation and defection within the body.