LIVE: OECD presents its global economic outlook

Growth slows amid multiple crises

The global economy faces heightened pressure from Middle East conflicts disrupting energy markets, rising fertilizer prices (particularly urea) threatening food security, and financial volatility compounding pre-existing structural challenges.

Structural challenges constrain potential

Persistent low productivity growth, population aging pressuring public finances, and the urgent need for digital and climate transitions are testing government capacity to deliver investment at required scale and speed.

Policy must complement markets

Effective industrial policy works with rather than against markets by cutting red tape, investing in skills, funding R&D, and building infrastructure rather than replacing private sector dynamism.

Risks of distortion and conflict

Poorly designed interventions can crowd out private investment, stifle innovation, undermine fiscal sustainability, and trigger costly trade conflicts that damage long-term living standards.

Productivity as primary goal

The single most important objective for any industrial policy is supporting broad-based productivity growth through innovation ecosystems and competition-friendly regulation.

New database exposes subsidy disparities

The OECD launched its 'magic database' tracking firm-level subsidies across 15 sectors and 525 companies, revealing that Chinese firms receive substantially larger state support (primarily via below-market loans from state-controlled banks) than OECD counterparts.

Global imbalances require coordinated adjustment

Persistent trade imbalances necessitate that surplus countries shift from export-led growth toward consumption while deficit countries must close widening productivity gaps and increase savings.

Supply concentration creates systemic risk

China's accumulation of dominant positions across critical industrial supply chains, enabled by state support, now represents a systemic risk to global economic resilience requiring evidence-based dialogue.

Security through diversification not isolation

Economic security requires diversifying supply chains and deepening partnerships with trusted allies while maintaining openness to global trade flows rather than pursuing self-sufficiency.

Multilateral solutions for technology transitions

Leadership in AI, semiconductor manufacturing, quantum computing, and clean energy cannot be achieved unilaterally and requires coalitions of like-minded partners to ensure shared resilience.

Ukraine's path to membership

The OECD is actively supporting Ukraine's reform process with the expectation of future full membership, viewing its economic reconstruction and integration as essential to regional stability and the rules-based order.