LIVE: Christine Lagarde speaks after ECB hikes rates

Unanimous 25 basis point rate hike

The Governing Council unanimously raised all three key ECB interest rates by 25 basis points without debating alternatives such as holding rates steady or implementing a larger increase.

Rejection of 'insurance' characterization

Lagarde explicitly rejected framing the hike as an 'insurance' or preemptive decision, stating it was predicated on updated staff projections showing inflation would exceed target without action.

No preset rate path

The ECB will follow a data-dependent, meeting-by-meeting approach to determine the appropriate monetary policy stance without forward guidance or pre-committing to specific future moves.

Downward growth revisions

Staff projections revised euro area growth down to 0.8% for 2026 and 1.2% for 2027, reflecting the war's impact on commodity markets, real incomes, and confidence.

Three-scenario framework

The rate decision is robust across adverse, severe, and a newly introduced 'milder' scenario, though Lagarde eliminated the 'see through' option, confirming the energy shock is neither limited nor short-lived.

Upside inflation risks

Headline inflation is projected at 3% in 2026, 2.3% in 2027, and 2% in 2028, with risks tilted to the upside from potential second-round effects if energy prices remain elevated longer than expected.

Services inflation acceleration

Services price inflation jumped to 3.5% in May from 3% in April, driven partly by energy costs, though the ECB has not yet detected second-round wage effects contributing to this increase.

Energy shock transmission

Higher energy prices are expected to feed into food, goods, and services inflation, keeping headline inflation well above target into the first half of 2027 before returning to 2% in the second half.