I Sold my #1 Stock🥺

Sold 600 shares worth $400,000

Reduced Meta from 30% to 19% of his public portfolio in the largest single move since the account's 2018 inception, though it remains his #1 position.

Realized $888,000 total gains on position

Sold shares originally purchased in 2018 and during the September 2022 crash at $153 cost basis, demonstrating long-term position building through volatility.

Big Tech projected to spend $610 billion in 2026

Combined capital expenditures for Microsoft, Google, Amazon and Meta now exceed total 2024 spending and surpass their operating cash flows.

Free cash flow elimination across major tech

Meta's projected $130 billion CapEx will consume nearly all of its $115 billion operating cash flow, leaving essentially zero free cash flow.

Depreciation drag lasting 5.5 years

The 2026 CapEx alone will create a $6 billion quarterly depreciation expense hitting earnings through 2031.

EPS growth expected to turn negative

Analysts project Meta's earnings growth will decelerate from 6% to 1%, then flatline before turning negative within four quarters despite 20%+ revenue growth.

Margin compression from 29% to 18%

Under base case assumptions, net income margins will compress significantly while R&D expenses have already increased 40% year-over-year.

Revised price targets slashed dramatically

Previous targets of $1,000 by 2026 and $2,000 by 2030 are now considered 'long shots' with base case projecting flat returns and only 5% net income growth.

From asset-light to asset-heavy model

Meta has transformed from a high-margin, asset-light cash machine into a capital-intensive infrastructure business requiring continuous heavy investment.

The CapEx trap dilemma

Reducing spending in 2027-2028 would boost earnings but signal wasted investment, while continuing spending destroys profitability in a lose-lose scenario.