I Just SOLD 1 Stock & Bought 3 Stocks‼️👍🏼
TL;DR
Mark Tilbury analyzes the recent market bounce while advocating for liquid cash reserves over locked investments, grades earnings season as strong but warns that exploding AI costs will crush big tech profits for 2-5 years, and details his sale of Google stock to redeploy capital into better opportunities.
📊 Market Conditions & Cash Strategy 3 insights
10-year Treasury yield blocks mortgage relief
The stubbornly high 10-year yield at 4.2% prevents meaningful mortgage rate declines, stalling the housing market until rates drop into the 3% range.
Crypto assets bounce hard off bottoms
Bitcoin, Ethereum, and silver have shown strong upward momentum after last week's lows, with Bitcoin rocketing upward after touching the 60K level.
Prioritize liquidity over slightly higher yields
Tilbury prefers high-yield savings accounts over CDs or Treasuries to maintain immediate access to capital for sudden market drops and avoid early withdrawal penalties.
🏦 High-Yield Savings Accounts 3 insights
Marcus by Goldman Sachs leads at 3.65%
Marcus offers up to $1,500 cash bonuses with a 3.65% yield, though funds must remain for 90 days to qualify for bonuses.
SoFi and Ally provide flexible alternatives
SoFi offers 3.3% to 4% with direct deposit and up to $300 bonuses, while Ally provides a stable 3.3% with no minimums or maintenance fees.
Avoid sketchy regional banks despite higher rates
Despite potentially higher yields at smaller institutions, Tilbury recommends sticking with established names for security despite FDIC insurance protections.
📈 Earnings Season Verdict 3 insights
Revenue beats significantly exceed historical norms
With 73% of companies beating revenue estimates compared to a 10-year average of 66%, alongside 76% beating EPS, the season shows strong fundamental performance.
Palantir earns historic A++ grade
Palantir received Tilbury's highest income statement grade ever, joined by A+ performers AMD, SoFi, and Microsoft, while Tesla and Starbucks received D grades.
Meta's C-grade signals dangerous cost explosion
Meta's disappointing grade reflects exploding AI and R&D costs that will plague big tech for 2-5 years, shifting investor focus from EPS to free cash flow metrics.
💼 Portfolio Management Moves 2 insights
Sold Google to capture $37,000 profit
Tilbury sold $72,000 worth of Google stock, realizing $37,000 in profits because the stock reached fair value and he identified better opportunities elsewhere.
Duolingo hedge shows profit-taking pitfalls
After selling Duolingo put options for a quick $19,000 profit, the position would now be worth $280,000, illustrating the psychological challenge of timing exits.
Bottom Line
Maintain liquid cash reserves in high-yield savings to capitalize on volatility, scrutinize big tech's exploding AI costs which will pressure earnings for years, and sell fairly valued positions to redeploy capital into superior opportunities without regret.
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