Bitcoin Bottom Not In: Ben Cowen Reveals Next Price Target
TL;DR
Analyst Ben Cowen argues Bitcoin has not reached its bear market bottom, predicting a total drawdown of approximately 70% from the October 2025 peak as late business cycle dynamics and macro headwinds continue to pressure risk assets through 2026.
📉 Bitcoin Price Outlook & Targets 3 insights
Bottom not yet reached
Cowen expects Bitcoin to trade lower through 2026, targeting a total decline of approximately 70% (±4-5%) from the October 2025 peak before the bear market concludes.
Midterm year weakness pattern
Bitcoin's 2026 performance is tracking the historical average ROI of prior midterm election years, which have consistently represented major windows of weakness for the asset.
Cycle duration suggests more downside
Historical cycles from low-to-low lasted 1,062 days (previous cycle), suggesting several more months of 'slightly lower highs and slightly lower lows' remain ahead.
🔄 Late Business Cycle Dynamics 3 insights
Risk rolling down the curve
Unlike prior crypto bull markets in early business cycles, the current late-cycle environment causes capital to flee speculative assets sequentially: altcoins bleed to Bitcoin, Bitcoin bleeds to stocks, and stocks bleed to gold.
Oil spike as cycle killer
Rising oil prices in late business cycles historically trigger the 'beginning of the end,' creating a Fed dilemma when unemployment and inflation rise simultaneously, preventing monetary easing.
2019 was the warning
The only other late-cycle crypto environment (2019) saw Bitcoin top two months before QE ended; high-risk assets underperformed until a crisis forced liquidity conditions to loosen.
🔍 On-Chain & Structural Weakness 3 insights
Key support levels unbreached
Unlike prior bear market bottoms (2011, 2014, 2018, 2022), Bitcoin has not yet fallen below both the realized price and balance price, suggesting further downside is needed.
Supply profitability indicator
The percentage of Bitcoin supply in profit and loss has not yet crossed, a historical prerequisite for price bottoms that typically occurs before the ultimate low is established.
ETF flow disconnect
Despite improved ETF flows, prices remain stagnant because early adopters ('OGs') are selling to new institutional participants without genuine retail influx; social interest has trended down since May 2021.
💵 Macro Correlations & Dollar Strength 3 insights
Dollar cycle mirroring 2017-2018
The DXY topped in January 2025 and bottomed in February 2026, closely tracking the 2017-2018 pattern; Cowen expects the dollar to rally toward 105-107, pressuring risk assets.
Severe underperformance vs traditional assets
Bitcoin has declined 55% against the NASDAQ since July and approximately 60% against gold, continuing a trend of relative weakness versus both tech stocks and safe havens.
Stock-to-gold ratio breakdown
The S&P 500's valuation against gold is breaking down from levels last seen in 1973 and 2008, historically preceding significant equity corrections and liquidity crises.
Bottom Line
Wait for Bitcoin to complete a ~70% drawdown from its peak and monitor for a business cycle crisis that forces the Federal Reserve to ease liquidity conditions before considering the bear market over.
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