Crypto’s ‘Godfather’ Is Shorting Bitcoin, Here’s His Downside Target | Michael Terpin

Shorting Bitcoin at $83K with downside target of $48K-$57K

Terpin has initiated short positions at current levels around $83,000, targeting a retest of the 200-week moving average between $48,000 and $57,000.

February low likely wasn't the cycle bottom

Historical patterns indicate capitulation typically lasts one year from the peak, suggesting the February dip to $60K was premature with the true bottom likely forming later.

23-month cycle points to October capitulation

Previous cycles show the final low occurs approximately 23 months after the initial all-time high, placing the expected bottom in October 2025.

Saylor's STRC strategy creates price floor but not immunity

MicroStrategy's persistent capital raises through STRC provide a demand floor preventing prices below $40,000, though this institutional buying doesn't stop lower highs in the $48K-$57K range.

Whales already sold significant positions last fall

Large holders distributed substantial Bitcoin between September and November 2024 and historically re-enter positions only after the capitulation bottom forms.

Retail liquidations now drive selling pressure

Current market selling stems primarily from overleveraged retail traders facing liquidations on derivatives platforms rather than continued whale distribution.

Maintains $1 million Bitcoin target by 2033

Despite near-term bearish positioning, Terpin's long-term thesis remains unchanged with Bitcoin reaching $1 million within eight years.

Four Seasons framework governs cycle timing

Bitcoin moves through predictable seasonal phases, with the current 'Bitcoin Fall' representing the decision-making period between the bubble pop and final winter capitulation.

Diminishing volatility supports higher lows

Each halving cycle exhibits smaller percentage drawdowns than the last, supporting a bottom above previous cycle lows despite the expected decline.