Why Are Bitcoin & AI Stocks CRASHING?!
TL;DR
Despite recent volatility in AI stocks and Bitcoin, macro hedge fund manager Jordy Visser argues we are only in the second inning of AI's infrastructure buildout, with memory shortages and physical bottlenecks creating strategic investment opportunities rather than signaling a bubble burst.
⚡ The AI Trade Reality Check 3 insights
Early innings thesis
We remain in the second or third inning of AI's long-term infrastructure buildout, making recent volatility a mid-cycle slowdown rather than a terminal bubble burst.
Memory demand explosion
AI agents triggered a step-change in memory requirements equivalent to adding 4 billion people to the planet's food demand overnight, creating a structural shortage until 2028.
Controlled growth benefits
Physical bottlenecks from Taiwan Semiconductor actually benefit society by preventing AI capabilities from advancing too rapidly for workers to adapt.
🏭 Infrastructure & Strategic Assets 3 insights
Memory as national security
AI memory has become a strategic military asset, with the US and China racing for dominance while Micron's CEO confirms supply will remain constrained through 2028.
Domestic manufacturing imperative
The Intel-TSMC partnership reflects strategic necessity to reshore foundry capacity and reduce dependence on foreign supply chains for critical AI infrastructure.
Micron's valuation trajectory
Micron recently generated more revenue in a single quarter than Nvidia did when it reached $4 trillion, positioning it to potentially reach $2 trillion market cap as pricing power persists.
🥊 Shifting AI Competitive Landscape 3 insights
Google's competitive decline
Gemini has fallen to third place behind OpenAI and Anthropic, losing key DeepMind talent while struggling to compete with GPT-5.5 and Claude 4.8 performance.
Platform consolidation trend
Power users have consolidated 90% of their AI usage to ChatGPT and Claude, abandoning Gemini for all but fact-checking as the performance gap widens.
Recursive improvement risks
The belief in recursive self-improvement makes third-place positioning dangerous, as open-source models now outperform Google's offerings, accelerating talent flight to pure-play AI labs.
📊 Global Market Divergence 2 insights
US equity underperformance
Despite bubble narratives, the S&P 500 has risen less than 8% year-to-date while Microsoft posts its worst month since 2008, contrasting with Taiwan up 50% and Korea's KOSPI up 100%.
Index composition effects
International markets outperform because their indices weight hardware suppliers (receivers) higher than US indices dominated by hyperscalers, capturing the actual AI infrastructure buildout.
Bottom Line
Focus investment on the physical AI infrastructure layer—specifically memory and semiconductor suppliers—rather than attempting to pick winners among AI models, as compute and memory scarcity represent the primary strategic bottleneck and value accrual point in the current buildout.
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