Why All-Time High Stocks Are Bullish for Bitcoin

Agentic AI enters year four

The economy is transitioning from software to hardware as digital employees get hired, driving profit margins higher through what Visser calls the 'agentic side' of AI.

Software is dead, hardware dominates

Capital is rotating aggressively from software (near lows) to semiconductors and power infrastructure, with semiconductor names up 30-50% year-to-date while the S&P 500 is only up 5%.

Your capex is my opportunity

Jensen Huang's five-layer cake framework highlights that underinvestment in manufacturing has created a structural shortage in energy, chips, and infrastructure that will persist for years.

Historic April performance signals double-digit future returns

The S&P 500 gained over 10% in April with seven all-time highs, a combination that has occurred only 12 times in history and typically precedes strong 12-month forward returns.

Median stock diverges from indexes

Despite index records, the median S&P stock remains 13% below its all-time high and roughly half of index constituents are down for the year, masking extreme concentration in AI infrastructure.

Small caps join via commodities

The Russell 2000 is hitting all-time highs because small-cap industrials, chemical companies, and commodity producers are critical suppliers to the AI build-out, creating broader market participation than the 2021 tech bubble.

$1.3 trillion backlog confirms demand

Google, Microsoft, and Amazon have a combined $1.3 trillion in contracted backlog, providing concrete evidence that AI demand is insatiable and not speculative bubble behavior.

Power is the ultimate constraint

Visser identifies power generation as the next critical bottleneck, noting that without sufficient energy to run chips, the sector could face a 20-30% correction due to inventory buildup despite long-term demand.

Korean memory arbitrage

The Roundhill Memory ETF (DRAM) attracted $2 billion in two weeks by offering U.S. investors access to Korean giants Samsung and SK Hynix via swaps, highlighting global capital flows chasing limited semiconductor supply.

Retail capital rotated to AI

Korean brokers and retail investors have shifted capital from crypto into the AI trade because semiconductors currently offer higher volatility and returns, draining crypto's typical retail energy.

Tokenization as H2 catalyst

Visser identifies tokenization as the likely catalyst to bring institutional and retail enthusiasm back to crypto, with significant conversations happening at recent pension and market structure conferences.

Bitcoin poised for catch-up rally

With all-time highs in traditional markets and underlying bid support building, Visser expects money to rotate into Bitcoin and Ethereum in the second half of 2025, leading to outperformance.