Top Of The K-Shaped Economy Starting To Crack? | Danielle DiMartino Booth

Hard data confirms net job losses

The Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages—reported by 95% of U.S. employers—shows net job losses in Q1, Q2, and Q3 2025, contradicting the more optimistic monthly non-farm payroll survey data.

600,000 full-time jobs eliminated

The economy shed approximately 600,000 full-time positions over the past 12 months, replaced largely by temporary part-time work in leisure and hospitality tied to World Cup tourism.

Recession is already here for many

While aggregate GDP remains positive, the 600,000 workers who lost full-time employment are experiencing recessionary conditions regardless of whether the NBER declares an official recession.

Top earners' confidence collapsing rapidly

University of Michigan and Conference Board data reveal that the highest income deciles—previously immune to economic stress—are now showing the fastest decline in consumer confidence.

Commercial real estate enters clearing phase

The long-awaited commercial real estate crisis is now in full-blown liquidation mode with extend-and-pretend ending as forced sales accelerate and lending standards tighten.

Bankruptcy filings surge across sectors

Business bankruptcies are up 40% year-over-year while consumer bankruptcies rise 10%, with the Producer Price Index for bankruptcy attorneys showing a hockey stick pattern of demand.

Student loan cliff arrives July 1st

Approximately 42 million borrowers must resume payments after forbearance since March 2020, creating an immediate cash flow shock for one in six Americans with student debt.

Defensive corporate spending dominates

Despite tax incentives in recent legislation, companies are spending on panic inventory stocking rather than productive capital expenditures, delaying investment until trade and tariff clarity emerges.

Boomer wealth concentration creates fragility

Americans over 70 own one-third of the stock market and hold $90 trillion in net worth, creating systemic risk if a market correction triggers negative wealth effects among this high-spending demographic.