The Next Great Commodities Boom Is Just Getting Started. Here's How To Play It | Tavi Costa

Unprecedented discovery drought

Zero major gold discoveries exceeding 2 million ounces have occurred in the past two years, a historical anomaly indicating the cycle is far from peaking compared to previous eras with double-digit discovery rates.

Underground supply bottleneck

While sufficient copper exists globally, it remains trapped underground with inadequate investment to extract it, creating a physical supply shortage against accelerating demand from AI data centers, electric vehicles, and industrial onshoring.

Historic market cap lows

The mining industry currently represents approximately 1% of global equity market capitalization, down from 7-10% historically, reflecting decades of neglect that cannot be repaired by two years of capital inflows.

Nascent institutional awakening

Pension funds and hedge funds recently rushed into senior miners and royalty companies but remain significantly underweight, still learning the sector's complexity while overlooking critical base metals like copper, nickel, and zinc.

Security trumps profitability

Valuation frameworks are shifting from discounted cash flow models to 'securing metal' premiums as sovereign wealth funds and governments prioritize supply chain security over traditional return metrics.

Policy-driven price supports

New US initiatives to establish price floors for critical minerals will create artificial demand supports and accelerate capital flows into strategic mining assets as nations compete for finite resources.