Rate Cut Reality Check » Market Movers - Apr 8, 2026

Ceasefire deemed 'fragile' as attacks persist

Despite the US-Iran ceasefire, kinetic strikes continue on the Levant oil refinery, Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline, and facilities across the UAE, Kuwait, and Bahrain, keeping the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed as ships avoid the risk.

Oil prices plunge 16% on diplomatic hopes

Brent and WTI crude both fell approximately 16% overnight, potentially lowering US gasoline prices within one to two weeks, though analysts warn prices could spike immediately if ceasefire talks collapse.

Oil majors face production stress ahead of earnings

Exxon reported its global oil-equivalent production will drop 6% in Q1 due to stressed LNG assets and gas fields in the region, creating uncertainty for long-term capex decisions despite benefiting from higher prices.

Rate cut expectations replace hiking fears

Following last week's rate hike speculation, economists at Bank of America and Citi now forecast one to three rate cuts beginning in September rather than June, pushing expectations to the second half of the year.

Bond market swings dramatically on geopolitical news

Long-bond futures swung from 113.02 to 115.00, a price move representing the difference between pricing in rate hikes versus bringing rate cuts back to the table as investors reassess the economic outlook.

Tech-led surge signals short-term bottom

The Nasdaq jumped roughly 800 points or 4.5% as investors rotated into cash-rich Mag Seven names, though traders caution against chasing the gap-up opening after a 1,000-point move from yesterday's lows.

Options volatility indicates calming longer-term outlook

S&P 500 options are pricing in 3% moves over eight days but only 5% over 35 days, suggesting traders expect near-term whippiness to fade into more normalized conditions ahead.

Levi's expands addressable market to $1.5 trillion

CFO Harmit Singh detailed how the company expanded its TAM 15x beyond traditional denim into luxury denim, women's wear, and tops, while direct-to-consumer channels now exceed 50% of total revenue.

CFO Harmit Singh announces retirement after 13 years

After guiding Levi Strauss through its 2019 IPO and serving dual roles as CFO and Growth Officer, Singh announced his retirement while committing to remain through the transition to ensure succession planning.