NFA Live! Bitcoin in 2026!
TL;DR
Crypto analysts debate whether Bitcoin will follow historical 'sell in May' bear market patterns during this midterm election year, highlighting unexpectedly stalled Bitcoin dominance, surprisingly muted ETF social sentiment, and the difficulty of timing counter-trend rallies.
📉 Seasonal Bear Market Patterns 3 insights
Midterm years follow February low, April rally script
Historical cycles from 2014, 2018, and 2022 show Bitcoin consistently forms a low in February, a higher low in April, then rallies into May or June before summer weakness resumes.
Current bounce fits bear market counter-trend profile
Analysts view the recent rally to $77-78K as a typical counter-trend move within a larger downtrend, warning that strength rarely persists beyond late May in midterm years.
Summer weakness likely tied to central bank actions
Previous midterm-year declines followed FOMC meetings and Bank of Japan rate hikes, suggesting similar catalysts could trigger the next leg down this summer.
🏗️ Bitcoin Dominance & ETF Narrative 3 insights
BTC dominance stalled at 60% for nine months
Unlike typical bear markets where Bitcoin dominance rises steadily, the metric has traded sideways since August 2024 due to soaring stablecoin dominance and the absence of a preceding alt season.
ETFs generate minimal social media engagement
Despite massive capital flows, ETF mentions on social platforms remain negligible compared to 2021's NFT and DeFi mania, indicating crypto natives view institutional products as TradFi co-option rather than cultural catalysts.
ETF products absorbed altcoin season capital
Spot Bitcoin ETFs likely prevented a traditional alt season by capturing capital that previously rotated into altcoins, fundamentally altering market structure from previous cycles.
🌍 Macro Surprises & Market Resilience 2 insights
S&P 500 hits highs amid maximum uncertainty
Analysts expressed surprise at equities reaching new peaks despite ongoing energy crises, Middle East conflicts, and trade tensions that would historically suppress risk assets.
Semiconductor sector's violent 40% V-shaped recovery
Chip stocks rallied approximately 40% within weeks, exceeding expectations and demonstrating how AI-driven momentum can override broader macroeconomic concerns.
Bottom Line
Expect summer weakness to resume after the current counter-trend rally exhausts itself, use bear market bounces to manage risk rather than chase momentum, and avoid assuming traditional alt season patterns will emerge while ETFs absorb retail capital.
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Market Discussion with Gareth Soloway, Mike McGlone, And Scott Melker
Despite oil spiking to $97 and the Strait of Hormuz closing, markets hover near all-time highs as investors 'climb the wall of worry.' The panel predicts this complacency ends soon with volatility exploding higher, commodities breaking lower, and Bitcoin following midterm-year patterns toward an October low after a summer decline.
Bitcoin: Realist Vs. Doomer
Benjamin Cowen argues that calling for a 70% Bitcoin drop to around $30-40K is a realistic, not 'doomer,' view based on historical bear market cycles, while outlining a worse 'doomer' scenario where delayed recession until late 2026 could cause deeper capitulation.
NFA Live! Bitcoin in 2026
Despite short-term volatility driven by political tweets, Bitcoin continues to follow historical 4-year cycles, while true mass adoption remains elusive as institutions co-opt crypto into traditional finance, necessitating diversification into energy, gold, and cash during midterm years.
Gold Drops Nearly 30%
Benjamin Cowen argues that despite gold's 20-30% drop from highs, the metal remains in a larger bull market that could extend into the 2030s, particularly as the S&P 500 has fallen 44% against gold since 2022 and historical patterns suggest gold recovers faster than equities after recessions.