Meltdown Begins: Trader Called Pullback, Warns Another 50% Crash Next | Gareth Soloway
TL;DR
Chief market strategist Gareth Soloway warns that Bitcoin is testing critical double-bottom support at $60k with potential downside to $50k or $35k if it fails, while urging investors to avoid the hyped SpaceX IPO on Friday and prepare for the S&P 500 to catch down to Bitcoin's weakness as the AI trade deflates.
🪙 Bitcoin Technical Outlook 3 insights
Bear flag target achieved and reversed
Soloway notes Bitcoin hit his $80-85k target perfectly before collapsing through the bear flag channel to test the $60k double-bottom support formed in February.
Critical support thresholds
A break below $60k opens a 'trap door' to $50-53k, while a failure there activates a head-and-shoulders pattern targeting $35k in a worst-case scenario tied to a broader market selloff.
Crypto-to-AI rotation dynamics
The recent divergence between Bitcoin and stocks occurred as capital rotated from crypto into high-momentum AI semiconductor stocks offering altcoin-like returns of 100-200%.
🚀 SpaceX IPO Red Flags 3 insights
Retail hype vs. insider reality
Soloway compares the SpaceX debut to Facebook's IPO, warning that retail excitement often peaks at launch while insiders secure shares at $135 compared to potentially much higher retail prices.
Recent IPO carnage
He cites newly public companies like Cerebrus (down 30% in three weeks) and Q&T (trading below insider prices) as evidence that recent IPOs have been poor performers for retail buyers.
Pre-IPO price rollover
SpaceX pre-IPO shares on Hyperliquid have already dropped from $228 to around $164, suggesting weakening demand ahead of Friday's debut despite the retail hype.
⚠️ Market Divergence & Strategy 3 insights
Alligator jaws closing
Soloway expects the S&P 500 to 'catch down' to Bitcoin's weakness rather than Bitcoin rallying to match stocks, particularly as the AI trade experiences corrective moves of 10-20%.
NASDAQ vulnerability
A 25% correction in the NASDAQ (returning to March levels) is not ridiculous and would likely crush Bitcoin given its historical correlation, despite recent divergence.
Tactical positioning advice
Soloway exited longs at $83k and is only inching into small short-term swing trades at current levels, waiting for sub-$50k prices to establish long-term Bitcoin positions and avoiding the SpaceX IPO entirely.
Bottom Line
Wait for Bitcoin to break below $50k before accumulating long-term positions, avoid buying the SpaceX IPO on debut day, and prepare for the S&P 500 to play catch-up to the downside as AI stocks correct.
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