Market Panic Warning: Trader Reveals 3 Signals To Watch | Kevin Steuer
TL;DR
Technical trader Kevin Steuer warns that escalating Middle East tensions and oil volatility are creating a high-risk environment for markets, sharing his proprietary confluence-based indicators and revealing why he has moved to 41% cash while awaiting clearer directional signals.
🌍 Volatility Catalysts and Warning Signals 3 insights
Oil $100 as psychological barrier
Crude oil sustained above $100 per barrel creates mental resistance that triggers panic selling, with recent spikes to $119 highlighting inflation risks and potential Fed policy complications.
VIX >30 signals systemic risk
Steuer watches for the VIX volatility index to stay above 30 for multiple days, alongside spikes in the MOVE Index (bond volatility) and 10-year yields, as precursors to liquidity crises or margin call cascades.
S&P 500 lacks support levels
The index shows bearish overall trends with negative momentum scores, facing heavy overhead resistance while lacking meaningful support levels that could arrest a downside move.
🤖 Proprietary Confluence Methodology 3 insights
Multi-indicator algorithmic scoring
The stockta.com platform aggregates EMA, MACD, RSI, Fibonacci, and trend data into confluence scores (2-10 scale) to identify high-probability support and resistance zones where technical signals align.
Trading against the machines
With JP Morgan estimating 90% of equity volume is programmatic, Steuer emphasizes that retail traders compete against algorithms, requiring systematic tools to anticipate machine-driven price movements rather than emotional narratives.
Asymmetric risk selection
Optimal setups require heavy confluence support beneath the entry price with minimal overhead resistance, creating favorable risk-reward ratios for swing trades lasting weeks rather than days.
📉 Sector-Specific Technical Outlooks 3 insights
Bitcoin ETFs face institutional headwinds
IBIT is rangebound between $36-$40 with significant overhead resistance, lacking clear uptrend momentum now that institutional participation has structurally changed crypto market dynamics from previous cycles.
Copper confirms economic weakness
COPX and CPER ETFs have lost trend scores and broken support levels, prompting Steuer to completely exit copper positions as bearish momentum accelerates in the industrial metal.
Netflix shows bullish breakout
NFLX displays a bullish intermediate trend with medium support established near $117 and room to run toward $115-$124, representing an asymmetric opportunity amid broad market weakness.
⚠️ Risk Management Strategy 3 insights
Elevated cash positioning
Steuer currently holds 41% cash to protect 2026 gains of 22.5% YTD, refusing to deploy capital during 'yellow light' conditions where multiple volatility indicators suggest elevated downside risk.
No-leverage discipline
The strategy avoids day trading, options, and margin entirely, instead utilizing stop losses on swing positions to lock in profits on winners like Verative Holdings (VRT) while avoiding forced liquidations during volatility spikes.
Event-driven position sizing
Steuer avoids trading the first 30-60 minutes on volatile days and reduces exposure when geopolitical events (such as Iran escalations) create unmeasurable binary outcomes for markets.
Bottom Line
Maintain elevated cash reserves and only deploy capital into setups with confirmed confluence support and clear trend scores, while treating VIX >30 and oil >$100 as immediate signals to reduce risk exposure.
More from The David Lin Report
View all
Global Crisis Looms: Will Oil Run Out By July? | Doomberg
Despite President Trump's claims that oil reserves would deplete within four weeks and predictions of July shortages, global oil markets have proven resilient through the Iran crisis, with WTI prices stabilizing around $72-73 indicating the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively open, while North America's integrated supply with Canada insulates it from the inventory risks facing island nations.
Market ‘Smackdown’ Ahead: Investor Reveals Your Ultimate Defense | John Feneck
John Feneck argues that despite severe corrections in precious metals, the bull market remains intact due to structural demand from central banks and supply shortages, but warns that a major market 'smackdown' will punish passive investors within 9 months as the post-2009 'set and forget' era ends.
Peter Schiff: The Next Meltdown Has Quietly Started
Economist Peter Schiff argues that extreme market valuations—exemplified by the SpaceX IPO and a collapsing crypto bubble—signal an impending meltdown, while the Fed's inevitable monetization of massive government debt will drive persistent inflation regardless of temporary dollar strength.
Will Silver Keep Crashing? CEO Called Rally, Reveals 'Explosive' Next Move | Jim McDonald
Cooney Silver CEO Jim McDonald maintains that silver remains in a multi-year bull market after its explosive run to $120, arguing that consolidation around $65-$70 sets the stage for further gains potentially reaching $300, driven by sustained monetary and industrial demand against structurally constrained supply.