LIVE: IEA’s Fatih Birol speaks to Chatham House's Bronwen Maddox

14 million barrels daily lost exceeds 1973 and 1979 combined

The current crisis has removed 14 million barrels per day from markets, surpassing the 10 million barrels lost in the 1973 and 1979 oil shocks combined, alongside 130 BCM of lost gas versus 75 BCM after Russia's Ukraine invasion.

Strait of Hormuz closure risks summer red zone

With global oil stocks eroding and demand set to spike during July-August travel season, markets may enter a critical red zone unless the strait reopens unconditionally and is deemed commercially reliable for shippers.

Vital commodity blockades threaten agriculture and industry

Beyond oil and gas, the crisis disrupts fertilizers, petrochemicals, helium, and sulfur shipments through Hormuz, creating severe implications for developing economies and global food production systems.

Fertilizer and diesel costs threaten global planting seasons

With fertilizer and diesel comprising 60% of production costs for wheat, rice, and maize, farmers face impossible conditions heading into planting season, risking reduced yields and severe food price spikes.

Inflation pressures mounting from energy-agriculture squeeze

The combination of elevated oil prices and agricultural input shortages is already driving inflation increases worldwide, with Birol warning these are merely the first signals of broader economic strain.

Electric vehicles reach 30% of global sales driven by cost

EV sales have surged from 5% to 30% of global vehicle sales in five years, driven primarily by falling costs and subsidies rather than environmental concerns, with Southeast Asia emerging as a key growth market challenging Japanese and Korean manufacturers.

Renewables dominate 75% of new power generation

In 2025, renewable energy sources accounted for 75% of all new power plants installed globally, compared to just 25% for coal, gas, nuclear, and oil combined, as solar becomes the cheapest option regardless of climate policy.

Nuclear power experiences strong global comeback

Nuclear energy is seeing renewed appetite worldwide as countries prioritize energy security and economic stability, with Birol predicting continued strong growth in atomic power capacity independent of political cycles.

US policy reversal slows domestic transition but not global trend

While the current US administration's rollback of clean energy subsidies has slowed American EV and renewable adoption while increasing coal use, the global transition continues accelerating based purely on economic competitiveness from Vietnam to Africa.

UK's energy future lies in electrification not North Sea drilling

Birol advises the UK that discovering significant new oil or gas deposits domestically is geologically impossible, making electrification through renewables, nuclear, and grid infrastructure the only viable path to industrial sovereignty and energy security.