LIVE: Fed Chair Jerome Powell speaks after rates held steady
TL;DR
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell announced the central bank is holding interest rates steady at 3.5%-3.75%, acknowledging that inflation remains elevated at 3% (core PCE) largely due to tariffs and new oil price shocks from Middle East conflicts, while maintaining a forecast for potential rate cuts later this year contingent on inflation progress.
🏦 Rate Decision & Economic Outlook 3 insights
Fed holds rates steady at 3.5%-3.75%
The FOMC maintained the target range for the federal funds rate, keeping policy within estimates of neutral after implementing 75 basis points of cuts between September and December.
Median forecast suggests two cuts ahead
Officials project the fed funds rate will reach 3.4% by year-end and 3.1% by end of 2026, unchanged from December projections despite upward revisions to inflation forecasts.
Policy characterized as modestly restrictive
Powell described monetary policy as sitting at the borderline between mildly restrictive and neutral, balancing downside risks to employment against upside risks to inflation.
📈 Inflation Drivers & Pressures 4 insights
Tariffs contributing significantly to core inflation
Powell attributed between 0.5% and 0.75% of the current 3% core PCE inflation rate directly to tariff effects, with goods inflation running at roughly 2% annually.
Goods inflation awaiting tariff passthrough
The Fed expects goods inflation to decline as one-time tariff price increases finish passing through the economy over 8-11 months, though this progress has materialized slower than anticipated.
Non-housing services inflation remains stagnant
Despite wage growth slowing and labor market loosening, non-housing services inflation has moved sideways for approximately a year, complicating broader disinflationary progress.
Middle East oil shock creates near-term uncertainty
Supply disruptions have driven up energy prices, which will temporarily boost headline inflation and could reduce consumer spending if higher gas prices persist for an extended period.
⚖️ Policy Strategy & Credibility 3 insights
Looking through inflation carries credibility risks
Powell acknowledged that with five years of above-target inflation, the standard approach of looking through energy shocks depends heavily on keeping long-term inflation expectations anchored at 2%.
Extreme uncertainty warrants flexibility
Powell emphasized that nobody knows the scope or duration of Middle East economic effects, leading officials to adopt a meeting-by-meeting approach rather than preset policy courses.
Domestic energy production offers partial offset
Higher oil prices may mitigate consumption losses through increased profitability for U.S. energy exporters, though drillers require sustained price increases to significantly expand activity.
Bottom Line
The Fed is maintaining a cautious, data-dependent stance—holding rates steady while signaling potential cuts later this year contingent on tariff-driven goods inflation subsiding, despite facing the dual challenge of persistent price pressures and uncertain geopolitical shocks.
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