LIVE: Fed Chair Jerome Powell speaks after rates held steady

Fed holds rates steady at 3.5%-3.75%

The FOMC maintained the target range for the federal funds rate, keeping policy within estimates of neutral after implementing 75 basis points of cuts between September and December.

Median forecast suggests two cuts ahead

Officials project the fed funds rate will reach 3.4% by year-end and 3.1% by end of 2026, unchanged from December projections despite upward revisions to inflation forecasts.

Policy characterized as modestly restrictive

Powell described monetary policy as sitting at the borderline between mildly restrictive and neutral, balancing downside risks to employment against upside risks to inflation.

Tariffs contributing significantly to core inflation

Powell attributed between 0.5% and 0.75% of the current 3% core PCE inflation rate directly to tariff effects, with goods inflation running at roughly 2% annually.

Goods inflation awaiting tariff passthrough

The Fed expects goods inflation to decline as one-time tariff price increases finish passing through the economy over 8-11 months, though this progress has materialized slower than anticipated.

Non-housing services inflation remains stagnant

Despite wage growth slowing and labor market loosening, non-housing services inflation has moved sideways for approximately a year, complicating broader disinflationary progress.

Middle East oil shock creates near-term uncertainty

Supply disruptions have driven up energy prices, which will temporarily boost headline inflation and could reduce consumer spending if higher gas prices persist for an extended period.

Looking through inflation carries credibility risks

Powell acknowledged that with five years of above-target inflation, the standard approach of looking through energy shocks depends heavily on keeping long-term inflation expectations anchored at 2%.

Extreme uncertainty warrants flexibility

Powell emphasized that nobody knows the scope or duration of Middle East economic effects, leading officials to adopt a meeting-by-meeting approach rather than preset policy courses.

Domestic energy production offers partial offset

Higher oil prices may mitigate consumption losses through increased profitability for U.S. energy exporters, though drillers require sustained price increases to significantly expand activity.