Is Cuba Next? | Mario Braga, RANE
TL;DR
Geopolitical strategist Mario Braga explains how Cuba's economy collapsed after losing Soviet and Venezuelan oil subsidies, triggering severe energy crises and island-wide protests, while the Trump administration applies maximum pressure through sanctions and diplomatic isolation to potentially force regime change.
⚡ Historical Alliances and Economic Dependencies 3 insights
Post-Soviet 'Special Period'
After the USSR collapsed in the 1990s, Cuba lost its primary oil supplier and entered a devastating economic crisis known as the Special Period characterized by severe shortages and inflation.
The Venezuela Lifeline
Since the late 1990s, Hugo Chávez provided subsidized oil in exchange for Cuban doctors and intelligence services, a partnership that included over 30 Cuban officials recently killed during a January 3 U.S. operation in Venezuela.
Shifting Suppliers
As Venezuela's economy collapsed and oil shipments declined, Mexico overtook Venezuela as Cuba's main oil provider in 2025.
🚨 Energy Collapse and Humanitarian Crisis 3 insights
Critical Oil Shortage
Cuba produces only 40% of its consumed oil, leaving its thermoelectric power grid dangerously dependent on imports to generate electricity.
Daily Blackouts
Rolling blackouts now last up to 20 hours daily, causing water pumps to fail, food to spoil without refrigeration, and nationwide class suspensions.
Social Breakdown
Rare protests have erupted across the island as residents burn furniture for cooking fuel and uncollected trash piles accumulate in the streets.
🇺🇸 US Policy Shifts and Maximum Pressure 3 insights
From Engagement to Pressure
The Obama administration pursued diplomatic normalization including direct flights and remittances, but Trump reversed these policies, implementing a 'maximum pressure' strategy with tightened sanctions.
Targeting Medical Diplomacy
The Trump administration is revoking visas of officials in partner countries and pressing nations to suspend Cuban doctor programs, with Honduras and Ecuador recently expelling Cuban diplomats.
Strategic Isolation
Current U.S. strategy aims to complete Cuba's economic strangulation by cutting off oil access and diplomatic partnerships throughout Latin America.
Bottom Line
Cuba's regime faces imminent collapse risk as the Trump administration coordinates regional pressure to sever oil supplies and diplomatic support, potentially forcing a transition if energy failures trigger sustained mass uprisings.
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