'I'm Mostly In Cash'; Trader Calls Next Drop For Stocks, Bitcoin, Gold | Kevin Steur

Algorithm flashes deflation warning

Proprietary signals flagged the US dollar and deflation ETF (BNDD) as strongest performers, while crypto, oil, and agricultural commodities registered weakest signals, suggesting inflation inputs are cooling rapidly.

Critical S&P support level identified

Key technical level to watch is 693 on SPY (approximately 6% below current levels); a breakdown below this threshold risks triggering a significantly larger sell-off.

Bull market momentum broken

Cites 'crazy gaps' in charts following Iran events as evidence that technical structures have been damaged, with the S&P 500 topping in June and gold/Bitcoin peaking earlier in the year.

Oil cycle has peaked

Believes oil prices have topped for this cycle unless ground troops enter Iran, noting the trend is making lower lows and lower highs with resistance under $94 per barrel.

Gold loses key psychological support

Gold broke below $4,000 (with $4,719 being the critical algorithmic level), erasing 2025 calendar-year gains and becoming oversold despite headwinds from dollar strength.

Fed hiking dilemma emerges

Questions whether the Fed will actually implement threatened rate hikes if deflationary data materializes, suggesting the central bank may be posturing rather than following data.

Presidential market intervention unprecedented

Notes Trump admitted the Iran peace deal was necessary to prevent a global depression from oil shortages, highlighting intense executive focus on keeping asset prices stable ahead of midterms.

Gridlock scenario ahead

Prediction markets indicate tight midterm races; a Democratic sweep could create legislative paralysis that slows deficit growth and reduces pressure on long-term bond yields.

Leadership speculation

Speculates Trump might step down if Republicans lose Congress, facing two years of gridlock rather than continuing without ability to pass his agenda.