Has Bitcoin Bottomed?🚨(Live Trading)
TL;DR
Despite Bitcoin bouncing from $60K, the trader argues it hasn't bottomed yet, remaining bearish unless $88K is reclaimed. He warns that a quick V-shaped recovery wouldn't signal a true bear market end, which historically requires 1-2 years of consolidation after an 80%+ drop.
📉 Market Structure Reality Check 3 insights
This isn't a true bear market yet
The trader argues Bitcoin hasn't entered a textbook bear market since the $16K bottom in 2022; the current 50% drop from $126K could merely be a harsh correction within the ongoing bull cycle rather than a cycle top.
Bear markets require time, not just price drops
Historical bear markets (2018, 2022) saw 80%+ declines over 400+ days followed by 1-2 years of low-volume consolidation; a quick V-shaped recovery to new highs would invalidate the 'bear market over' narrative.
Bull market remains intact since 2022
Viewing the chart from $16K shows Bitcoin never truly consolidated or entered extended downtrends, suggesting the entire move from 2022-2025 constitutes one continuous bull market structure.
📊 Technical Analysis & Critical Levels 3 insights
Volume profile gap filled at $67K
Bitcoin filled the volume profile gap created by the impulsive move from $67K to $97K, explaining the drop to current levels; the bounce from $60K stems from March/June 2024 consolidation support.
$60K is a 'weak low' likely to break
The exact $10,000 figure print at $60,000 on Coinbase statistically indicates a weak low with 70-80% probability of being taken out, suggesting further downside to $50K or $40K is possible.
$88K is the bull/bear pivot
Bitcoin must reclaim and hold $88K to confirm strength and invalidate the downtrend; until then, the macro trend remains bearish regardless of temporary bounces.
🎯 Live Trading Strategy 4 insights
Holding shorts from $96K without profit
The trader maintains short positions from $96K (and $106K, $125K) for nearly three weeks, refusing to take profits until clear market strength emerges above $88K.
Short setup at $80K-$78.6K
If Bitcoin squeezes higher to $80K and loses $78.6K, this creates a high-probability short entry targeting lower lows, with stops above the wick high.
Secondary short at $88K rejection
A V-shaped recovery to $87K-$88K presents another optimal short opportunity, as retail typically FOMOs into perceived 'bull market' recoveries at this key resistance.
Long entry below $60K
Rather than buying the current bounce, the trader prefers waiting for the $60K low to be taken out before considering long positions, or confirmation above $88K.
Bottom Line
Don't confuse a bounce with a bottom—wait for Bitcoin to either reclaim $88K for bullish confirmation or break below $60K for a better long entry, while avoiding the trap of calling a 120-day drop a 'bear market' without the required 1-2 year consolidation period.
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