Goldman says the economy is bending, not breaking

Three key factors preventing economic collapse

Global oil oversupply before the war, less painful demand destruction (airlines cutting low-revenue regional routes), and China's renewable pivot reducing oil demand.

AI boom offsetting geopolitical risks

Semiconductor stocks up 70% year-to-date with companies like Nvidia gaining 2.36% daily, keeping equity markets and economic sentiment buoyant despite negative client conversations.

Inflation vs growth concerns emerging

Rising gas prices threaten consumer spending power as tax refund cash flows end, with Goldman estimating only 0.5% growth hit currently but watching CPI and consumer data closely.

Unusual energy-tech sector alignment

Energy up 2.5% alongside tech gains, a rare occurrence as these sectors typically move opposite directions, while 30-year Treasury yields approach 5%.

Semiconductor rally continues unabated

Micron, Western Digital, and Qualcomm each up over 7%, with the sector hitting record highs daily and showing no signs of looking back.

Chinese tech at critical technical juncture

China Technology ETF (CQQ) down 50% from 2021 peaks but approaching breakout above $60 resistance level, potentially signaling recovery.

Trump rejects Iran peace proposal

President calls Iran's counter-proposal "totally unacceptable" with 30-40% probability of bombing Iran in next six weeks, though experts believe larger US-China issues take precedence.

US-China summit faces major challenges

Trump wants trade deals and strong positioning while Beijing seeks US concessions on Taiwan, with neither side feeling comfortable about flexibility.

Export controls show limited AI impact

US restrictions on China's AI ambitions described as "very leaky" with Chinese entities finding workarounds through third countries and direct violations.