Fatih Birol - Executive Director of the International Energy Agency | Podcast | In Good Company
TL;DR
Fatih Birol characterizes the Middle East crisis as the greatest energy security threat in history, with oil and gas supply losses exceeding the 1973, 1979, and 2022 Russia-Ukraine crises combined, risking a global recession and debt spiral in developing economies while accelerating structural shifts toward nuclear power, electrification, and grid resilience.
⚠️ Unprecedented Supply Disruption 3 insights
12 million barrels per day offline
Current oil supply losses exceed the combined total of the 1973 and 1979 oil crises, with natural gas disruptions also surpassing the 2022 Russian cutoff.
Critical infrastructure under attack
Forty key energy assets in the region have been damaged, some severely, while vital commodities including petrochemicals, fertilizers, and sulfur face major supply chain disruptions.
April inflection point imminent
April will see supply losses double those of March as pre-war cargoes finish arriving, potentially forcing energy rationing in vulnerable nations.
🌍 Global Economic Vulnerability 3 insights
Emerging markets face existential risk
Developing economies in Asia, Africa, and Latin America are hit hardest due to import dependence and lack of hard currency, risking a 1970s-style foreign debt spiral.
Europe's delayed awakening
European governments initially underestimated the crisis, but now face surging spot LNG prices as Asian buyers compete for supplies, driving up electricity costs and risking political extremism before elections.
Inflation and growth collision
The supply shock will trigger significant inflation while cutting economic growth, with effects filtering through immediately as current stockpiles deplete.
🛢️ Emergency Measures and Strategic Constraints 3 insights
Historic strategic reserve release
The IEA coordinated the largest oil release in history, deploying 400 million barrels (20% of reserves), which temporarily reduced prices by $18 but remains insufficient as a long-term cure.
The Hormuz chokepoint imperative
While demand-side measures like speed limits and work-from-home policies help, reopening the Strait of Hormuz is the single only solution to resolve the crisis structurally.
No return to Russian gas
Birol urges maintaining restrictions on Russian gas imports for technical, economic, and strategic reasons, warning that repeating Europe's over-reliance mistake would be inexcusable.
⚡ Accelerated Energy Transition 3 insights
Nuclear power renaissance
The crisis will trigger a major comeback for nuclear energy, both traditional reactors and small modular reactors, mirroring the 170 GW buildout following the 1970s oil shocks.
Transport electrification and grid risks
Electrification will accelerate, particularly in Asia, but creates new vulnerabilities through cyberattack risks and insufficient grid capacity that currently leaves four times the renewable additions idle.
Short-term coal resurgence likely
High natural gas prices may drive a temporary or longer-term push toward coal in China, India, and Indonesia, alongside faster renewable and battery deployment.
Bottom Line
Governments must treat this as a global economic threat rather than a regional conflict, prioritizing the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz while accelerating grid investment and nuclear deployment to prevent a developing world debt crisis.
More from In Good Company (Nicolai Tangen)
View all
Anne Marte Pensgaard: Why does Norway dramatically outperform at the Olympics? | In Good Company
Sports psychology professor Anne Marte Pensgaard explains Norway's Olympic dominance as the result of a 30-year cultural shift prioritizing youth enjoyment over early competition, systematic mental training, and tight-knit cross-sport collaboration established after the medal-less 1988 Calgary Games.
How the we use AI in practice | AI Summit 2026 | Norges Bank Investment Management
Norges Bank Investment Management details its aggressive AI adoption strategy, revealing that achieving a 20% efficiency target required mandatory company-wide upskilling, painful data infrastructure overhauls, and shifting from traditional Scrum teams to small AI-enabled autonomous units.
Christine Lagarde - President of the European Central Bank | Podcast | In Good Company
Christine Lagarde warns that today's combination of AI-driven technological disruption and geopolitical fragmentation mirrors the 1920s, creating risks of financial instability and conflict. She argues Europe must accelerate its green transition, confront difficult trade-offs between social benefits and defense spending, and fiercely protect central bank independence to navigate unprecedented economic uncertainty.
This is how we work with risk in the fund | Risk Summit 2026 | Norges Bank Investment Management
At NBIM's inaugural Risk Summit, executives from the world's largest sovereign wealth fund explain how they navigate an era where 'stability has never been more unstable,' employing AI-enhanced monitoring and rigorous scenario planning to manage intertwined geopolitical, counterparty, and emerging technology risks.