Fatih Birol - Executive Director of the International Energy Agency | Podcast | In Good Company

12 million barrels per day offline

Current oil supply losses exceed the combined total of the 1973 and 1979 oil crises, with natural gas disruptions also surpassing the 2022 Russian cutoff.

Critical infrastructure under attack

Forty key energy assets in the region have been damaged, some severely, while vital commodities including petrochemicals, fertilizers, and sulfur face major supply chain disruptions.

April inflection point imminent

April will see supply losses double those of March as pre-war cargoes finish arriving, potentially forcing energy rationing in vulnerable nations.

Emerging markets face existential risk

Developing economies in Asia, Africa, and Latin America are hit hardest due to import dependence and lack of hard currency, risking a 1970s-style foreign debt spiral.

Europe's delayed awakening

European governments initially underestimated the crisis, but now face surging spot LNG prices as Asian buyers compete for supplies, driving up electricity costs and risking political extremism before elections.

Inflation and growth collision

The supply shock will trigger significant inflation while cutting economic growth, with effects filtering through immediately as current stockpiles deplete.

Historic strategic reserve release

The IEA coordinated the largest oil release in history, deploying 400 million barrels (20% of reserves), which temporarily reduced prices by $18 but remains insufficient as a long-term cure.

The Hormuz chokepoint imperative

While demand-side measures like speed limits and work-from-home policies help, reopening the Strait of Hormuz is the single only solution to resolve the crisis structurally.

No return to Russian gas

Birol urges maintaining restrictions on Russian gas imports for technical, economic, and strategic reasons, warning that repeating Europe's over-reliance mistake would be inexcusable.

Nuclear power renaissance

The crisis will trigger a major comeback for nuclear energy, both traditional reactors and small modular reactors, mirroring the 170 GW buildout following the 1970s oil shocks.

Transport electrification and grid risks

Electrification will accelerate, particularly in Asia, but creates new vulnerabilities through cyberattack risks and insufficient grid capacity that currently leaves four times the renewable additions idle.

Short-term coal resurgence likely

High natural gas prices may drive a temporary or longer-term push toward coal in China, India, and Indonesia, alongside faster renewable and battery deployment.