'Everything Is Getting Hit': Next Is 2008, 9/11 For Stocks, Oil, Bitcoin | Mike McGlone

Third major S&P 500 drawdown since 2000 beginning

McGlone identifies this as the start of the third 50% decline in the S&P 500 since 2000, with the stock market now trading at 2.3 times GDP—nearly double the 2007 peak and the most expensive since 1928.

Volatility shock mirroring 2008 pattern

Despite the sell-off, 60-day volatility on the S&P 500 was down 10% year-to-date as of mid-March, a setup identical to early 2008 before the financial crisis accelerated and volatility exploded.

Consumer sentiment and AI fears accelerating downturn

The strategist notes that waning consumer sentiment and mounting fears over AI-driven job losses are compounding the recessionary pressure created by the stock market decline itself.

Crude oil to crash toward $40-50 by year-end

Despite current prices near $96, McGlone expects WTI crude to fall to $40-50 per barrel by December as demand destruction and recession take hold, comparing the setup to 2008 when oil peaked at $147 then collapsed to $32.

Bitcoin heading to $10,000

Maintaining a long-held bearish view, McGlone predicts Bitcoin will ultimately trade toward $10,000, viewing crypto as a leading indicator that has already rolled over ahead of traditional markets.

Gold to retreat to $4,000 amid deflation

After warning about gold's parabolic rally last year, McGlone now expects the metal to drop to $4,000 per ounce as markets price in a more secure geopolitical environment and deflationary recession.

Strait of Hormuz closure is the 2008/9-11 catalyst

McGlone calls the unexpected closure of the Strait of Hormuz the market's biggest shock since 9/11 and 2008, creating an energy crisis that will trigger global recession despite his expectation of a near-term military resolution.

Current oil shock is double the 2008 impact

While the 2008 recession accelerated when gasoline hit $4 per gallon following a 53% oil price rise, this year's rally to $120 required a 108% price increase—doubling the supply shock and guaranteeing demand destruction.

Fed uncertainty and Treasury opportunity

Dismissing Powell's ability to navigate the crisis ('He doesn't know'), McGlone argues the Fed cannot hike into this weakness and identifies long-duration Treasury bonds as the best alpha trade for the year as yields inevitably fall.