'Everything Is Getting Hit': Next Is 2008, 9/11 For Stocks, Oil, Bitcoin | Mike McGlone
TL;DR
Bloomberg Intelligence strategist Mike McGlone warns that the Strait of Hormuz closure has catalyzed the beginning of a severe global recession, predicting a third 50% S&P 500 drawdown since 2000, oil crashing to $40-50 per barrel, Bitcoin collapsing to $10,000, and gold falling to $4,000 as deflationary forces overwhelm historically overvalued markets.
📉 Recession & Equity Collapse Warning 3 insights
Third major S&P 500 drawdown since 2000 beginning
McGlone identifies this as the start of the third 50% decline in the S&P 500 since 2000, with the stock market now trading at 2.3 times GDP—nearly double the 2007 peak and the most expensive since 1928.
Volatility shock mirroring 2008 pattern
Despite the sell-off, 60-day volatility on the S&P 500 was down 10% year-to-date as of mid-March, a setup identical to early 2008 before the financial crisis accelerated and volatility exploded.
Consumer sentiment and AI fears accelerating downturn
The strategist notes that waning consumer sentiment and mounting fears over AI-driven job losses are compounding the recessionary pressure created by the stock market decline itself.
🛢️ Commodity & Crypto Price Targets 3 insights
Crude oil to crash toward $40-50 by year-end
Despite current prices near $96, McGlone expects WTI crude to fall to $40-50 per barrel by December as demand destruction and recession take hold, comparing the setup to 2008 when oil peaked at $147 then collapsed to $32.
Bitcoin heading to $10,000
Maintaining a long-held bearish view, McGlone predicts Bitcoin will ultimately trade toward $10,000, viewing crypto as a leading indicator that has already rolled over ahead of traditional markets.
Gold to retreat to $4,000 amid deflation
After warning about gold's parabolic rally last year, McGlone now expects the metal to drop to $4,000 per ounce as markets price in a more secure geopolitical environment and deflationary recession.
🌍 Geopolitical Catalysts & Fed Policy 3 insights
Strait of Hormuz closure is the 2008/9-11 catalyst
McGlone calls the unexpected closure of the Strait of Hormuz the market's biggest shock since 9/11 and 2008, creating an energy crisis that will trigger global recession despite his expectation of a near-term military resolution.
Current oil shock is double the 2008 impact
While the 2008 recession accelerated when gasoline hit $4 per gallon following a 53% oil price rise, this year's rally to $120 required a 108% price increase—doubling the supply shock and guaranteeing demand destruction.
Fed uncertainty and Treasury opportunity
Dismissing Powell's ability to navigate the crisis ('He doesn't know'), McGlone argues the Fed cannot hike into this weakness and identifies long-duration Treasury bonds as the best alpha trade for the year as yields inevitably fall.
Bottom Line
Hide in Treasury bonds and avoid risk assets, as a deflationary recession will drive the S&P 500 significantly lower, crash oil to $40-50 per barrel, and send Bitcoin toward $10,000 once the initial geopolitical fog clears and overvalued markets correct.
More from The David Lin Report
View all
Gold's Worst Crash Since 1983, Is This An Opportunity Or Trap? | Morgan Steckler
Gold's recent sharp decline reflects mechanical selling from profit-taking institutions and margin calls rather than a fundamental breakdown, with retail investors treating the dip as a buying opportunity to hedge against dollar devaluation and record national debt.
Biggest Energy Shock In History To Break 'Fragile' Markets | Doomberg
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has triggered a historic energy shock combining 1970s oil crises with 2022 gas shortages, while Trump's erratic ultimatums and Iran's proven ability to strike critical infrastructure create a prolonged standoff that markets are dangerously underestimating.
Food Inflation Set To Surge: Economist Warns How Bad It Could Get | Michael Madowitz
Economist Michael Madowitz warns that surging diesel and oil prices from Middle East conflict are hitting an already fragile U.S. economy—characterized by stagnant job growth, restrictive immigration policies, and supply constraints—threatening to accelerate food inflation beyond current 3% forecasts despite record domestic oil production.
Gold, Silver Collapse, What’s Next? 'Fear Trade' Just Started | Gary Thompson
Gary Thompson, CEO of Brixton Metals, argues that the recent sharp correction in gold and silver prices reflects a short-term "fear trade" driven by Middle East tensions rather than deteriorating fundamentals, with the six-year silver supply deficit and emerging battery technology demand creating a compelling buying opportunity for mining equities.