Bitcoin Billionaire Reveals His Current Investing Strategy

Track oil futures spreads to verify supply disruptions

Monitor the spread between front-month and sixth-month WTI contracts rather than media narratives to objectively determine if oil is physically flowing through the Strait of Hormuz.

Geopolitical violence only matters if energy stops flowing

Markets ignore casualties in the Middle East as long as oil continues moving, but react violently to supply shocks that threaten energy availability.

Backend oil prices indicate market confidence in resolution

Contained back-month futures prices suggest traders expect accommodations to keep oil flowing despite ongoing conflict and propaganda from both sides.

AI automation creates deflation in discretionary goods

Rapid displacement of knowledge workers by AI agents reduces demand for luxury items and creates credit deflation as unemployed tech workers default on debts.

Energy inflation persists in essential necessities

Unlike discretionary goods, energy costs remain inflationary due to supply constraints, creating a bifurcated economy where necessities inflate while wants deflate.

Federal Reserve will print to save banks regardless of leadership

The Fed acts as a government arm that will inevitably cut rates and print money to prevent banking system collapse from AI-driven credit contraction or fiscal spending needs.

Bitcoin serves as a liquidity smoke alarm

Bitcoin's 50% drawdown from all-time highs signals insufficient global liquidity creation relative to capital absorption by AI infrastructure and geopolitical spending.

Maintains 90% net worth allocation in Bitcoin

Hayes keeps over 90% of his portfolio in Bitcoin with a low cost basis, refusing to sell during volatility but holding off on fresh fiat deployment until central banks restart printing.

Favors Hyperliquid and Zcash for relative outperformance

While avoiding new Bitcoin purchases during the deflationary period, Hayes identifies Hyperliquid and Zcash as the altcoins with the highest potential for outsized gains.

US gold exports reveal quiet rebuilding of gold standard

America has become the largest exporter of non-monetary gold to Switzerland and China, indicating nations are using physical gold to settle trade deficits beneath the surface of dollar dominance.

Gold lubricates international trade outside dollar system

Countries without dollar surpluses are exchanging gold for yuan to purchase Chinese goods, creating a sovereign settlement layer parallel to Bitcoin's payment utility.