Billions in Tariff Refunds — Who Gets the Money? | Prof G Markets

Supreme Court blocks emergency tariff authority

The Court ruled 6-3 that Trump overstepped his powers under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, invalidating the sweeping tariffs imposed since February 2024.

Section 122 workaround activated within hours

Trump immediately pivoted to the Trade Act of 1974 to impose a blanket 10% tariff on all imports, threatening to increase it to the statutory maximum of 15%.

150-day clock invites legal gamesmanship

The new authority expires in late July, with experts debating whether Trump can let it lapse briefly and reinstate it to circumvent the time limit, though courts would likely reject such a maneuver.

Billions in refunds likely for importing businesses

Legal experts agree the government must repay tariffs collected under the invalidated emergency powers authority, treating them like any other illegal tax.

494-day deadline looms for refund claims

Companies must file customs protests within 494 days of entry to preserve their claims, with logistics firms like Flexport already processing refunds for customers.

Consumers unlikely to see relief

Despite bearing an estimated 60% of tariff costs through higher prices, end consumers have no mechanism to claim refunds unlike importing businesses.

Foreign governments face strategic dilemma

Trade partners like the UK and Japan will likely honor existing deals if rates remain stable but may retaliate if Trump hikes tariffs using the new authority.

Section 232 and 301 tariffs remain intact

Unlike the emergency powers tariffs, those justified under national security and trade investigations were not challenged and continue in force.

Trade lawyers emerge as primary winners

Persistent legal uncertainty is driving foreign governments and corporations to rely heavily on expensive trade counsel to navigate shifting regulations.