Are bonds getting ready to break out? Plus, why this analyst says we're not in a crypto winter

Infrastructure growth defies price declines

Moss distinguishes between price corrections and crypto winters, noting that unlike 2014, current development and tradfi tokenization initiatives are accelerating despite Bitcoin being down 45% from highs.

Risk asset correlation drives token performance

Bitcoin trades in correlation with the NASDAQ rather than gold, explaining recent declines as investors rotate from growth tech into value sectors.

Retail buying clashes with whale selling

On-chain data reveals small retail holders began accumulating below $69,000 while large holders (whales) remain net sellers alongside record spot Bitcoin ETF outflows, suggesting a bottom has not yet formed.

Regulatory framework remains key catalyst

Comprehensive market structure legislation would drive major banks to adopt blockchain settlement layers, potentially triggering a paradigm shift in network activity and token valuations.

Pennant formation signals imminent breakout

Three-year Treasury yields display a contracting technical pattern indicating volatility ahead, with the prevailing trend suggesting a potential move toward the 5% level that previously triggered market stress.

Temporary yield relief on long end

The 30-year Treasury yield dropped six basis points (the most in several months) while the 10-year fell five basis points, retreating from key resistance levels.

Cyclical leadership replaces tech dominance

February markets show clear rotation from megacap tech and software (Atlassian down 21% month-to-date) to materials, industrials, and energy sectors.

Massive job growth revisions expected

Upcoming benchmark revisions could eliminate 600,000 to 900,000 previously reported jobs, potentially revealing zero net job gains for 2025.

Experience economy strengthens travel demand

Marriott reports luxury RevPAR up 6% with record pipeline signings, confirming a permanent consumer shift from hard goods to travel experiences, while upcoming credit card renegotiations with JPMorgan and Amex offer additional profit upside.